Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Vexing Mathematical Combinations Embedded in Deal or No Deal Gameshow.

When a Deal or No Deal contestant picks a case at the beginning of the game, their odds are one in 26 that they picked any one of the 26 different amounts. But when the game winds down to the final several cases, suddenly the odds of the case the contestant picked at one out of 26, apparently become much better. If there are six cases left, does the case the contestant picked when there were 26 cases actually have "better" odds?

In my opinion the Case's probability can never change once it has been selected. However, there is a mathematical blending effect in which the remaining cases technically have an increased chance of being something more tangible. If there are six cases left, and the million dollar case has not been opened yet, then technically we have overlapping odds. The odds are still 1 in 26 that the Contestant's case has a million dollars in it, but because there are only six cases left, the Contestant also has a 1 in 6 chance that their case has a million dollars in it.

For a game that is basically about luck and chance, Blind Strategy based on skill sets of probability and odds manages to pry it way into the game. Conflicting odds and scenarios further make the final 8 or less cases a complex compendium of options that can create dramatic swings in opportunity and luck.

Deal or No Deal has been rebooted and is now on CNBC every Wednesday Night. 

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